Crystal Ball: The Patriots' Offense

The biggest story in pro football this past offseason, unfortunately,  had nothing to do with football.  And while nothing can approach the gravity of that situation, it does leave an affect on one of the most dangerous offenses of the past decade.  As training camps open around the NFL, many are concerned with personnel turnover in New England, and what it means for the perennial Super Bowl contender. 

So, I dug back into the film vault, and went back to 2006.   Randy Moss was a disaster with the Raiders, and Wes Welker was still a Dolphin.  They had just lost two starting receivers (David Givens and Deion Branch), and were relying on journeyman receivers Reche Caldwell and Jabbar Gaffney.  Still, this was the Patriots, and Josh McDaniel and Bill Belichick still had Tom Brady, who had won three championships with receivers who were not quite household names.  What I found was a team that did what all great offenses do: they ATTACK, while at the same time minimizing its weaknesses.  While TV analysts like to talk about player matchups, these matchups are dictated by scheme, and no one schemes better than the Patriots.

Below is an example of how formationing can provide a unique advantage for the offense:

With 2 tight ends on the field (Daniel Graham and Ben Watson) they are able to dictate a single high safety coverage.  By condensing the splits of the outside receivers, the corners are forced to loosen their cushion.  The result is the first completion of the ball game on a speed out to the receiver at the bottom of the screen.  This is an example of an easy completion that was "manufactured" before the ball was ever snapped.  

Easy completions will also come in the screen game; over the years, few have been as productive as the Patriots.  Here, Kevin Faulk is about to get a big play, with a convoy of blockers in front to lead the way.  My guess is that Leon Washington would fill that "receiving back" role this year.  From an explosion standpoint, there is a great deal of potential here.

Way before Wes Welker was taking apart defenses, the Patriots made heavy use of stacking receivers.  Below, the blitz called by the Colts takes away any ability by the defense to play 3 defenders over 2 stacked receivers -- the only way to avoid losing a receiver in man coverage.  The blitz is easily picked up, as the Patriots are in a 7-man protection.  The motion man cuts under the X on the LOS, and the offense gets an explosive play with a relatively easy throw and catch.

Below, the Patriots' alignment is noteworthy, aside from being in an "Empty" formation.  First, they are in their basic one-back, one-tight end personnel grouping does not give the defense any advanced warning of a no-back formation (and thus no cue to blitz/ zone blitz); the Patriots have the ability in their system, even from this formation, to check to a 6-man protection -- thus nullifying an overload from 2-deep.  Second, FB/RB Heath Evans is deployed wide to the right - using up a corner on him, and making the SAM cover a wide receiver.  And this is all pre-snap!

The play uses what I call the RAM Advantage Principle, in which the QB has a "2 on 1" pattern on either outside linebacker, and he simply "Reads Away from Mike" to gain an advantage.  Brady has a "Hook" pattern (known as "Stick" in the West Coast Offense) to the right and a "Double Slant' pattern to the left.  The red circle shows the MIKE already to Brady's right; all the slot receiver on the left has to do is cross the W's face for a big gain.

As illustrated in my latest book on the passing game, RECODED AND RELOADED, we have a very similar staple using the RAM principle; the only difference is the use of an option route by the weakside slot.  With M going to the right and W being wrong no matter what he does, a big play is the result:

As the play develops, one can see M continuing to the right, as the slot gets inside of the weakside defender.  Another big play on a throw and catch that is relatively easy (please don't mistake, I am not minimizing Tom Brady's greatness; what I am explaining is how they manipulate every situation to their advantage, while many coaches will attempt much lower percentage methods of attacking).

Here is another Scoring Zone opportunity, this time against the Chargers.  While there are man-to-man elements in this play, the highlighted combination is in anticipation of the zone defense many teams will employ in this area of the field.  Watson will drag across the front of the end zone, attracting the weak safety, while X works the back line. 

As the play develops, you can see the ball on the way to the open spot, with Reche Caldwell racing for the touchdown.  The burst release puts the corner in a precarious position, as his "help" was absorbed by the drag route in the front of the end zone.

Below shows a play that is a descendant of the Run and Shoot "Choice" route.  An easy way to read this pattern is what I call the third Advantage Principle in my book, the NUMBERS read.  Basically, the single receiver side features a pattern to attack a single-high safety defense, while the multiple-receiver side attacks a 2-high defense.  The contour of the secondary clearly shows 1-high, and X at the top runs a burst out - an adjustment on the traditional 6-step speed cut out.

As the play continues, one can see how open X is as he catches the pass; this is an uncontested 14-yard gain,   Brady could have been throwing to a trash can on the sideline and it would have been just as open against this defense.

The true beauty of the Patriots' offense doesn't lie in the eye-popping Fantasy Football numbers they produce.  It is how they take very good defenses, and find ways to attack.  Here, the offense takes advantage of a very well-coached Jets defense.  First, the stacked receivers on either side forces the Jets to play "3 over 2" on both sides -- something we noted earlier that a well-prepared team SHOULD do.  But, the Patriots also deploy the RB as a WR; "empty" formations trigger the Jets to check to max blitz.    The defensive rules are contradicting themselves with this formation.  After all that ruckus, the RB shifts back to the backfield.  The middle linebacker upholds the blitz check.

But, once again, the Patriots already know this and are taking advantage.  With the max blitz call, one of the 3 defenders at the top of the screen (assigned to play "3 over 2" just a few seconds ago) must now cover the back.  The Patriots run a popular 3-man combination, but force the Jets to cover the back's flat route with a man furthest from him.  The result is an easy touchdown.

So how did New England do back in 2006, after they lost 2 starting receivers and before acquiring Welker and Moss?  12-4, losing to the Colts in the AFC Championship game.  They did so by creating situations for their receivers that are relatively easy to execute by degree of difficulty.  What it requires is a quarterback to make the throws on time, and in the face of duress; they have that department covered.

It's been said that the future is in the past, and if 2006 was any indication, the Patriots offense will be just fine in 2013.  The coaching and quarterback play raise the level of all the players in the system; while many teams seem to find ways to waste the talent on the roster, the Patriots find ways to squeeze every ounce of production from everyone they put on the field. 

Will the Patriots be better once Gronkowsky is healthy?  Of course they will!  But, as I've discussed here, the Patriots won't just sit back and let let defenses dictate to them.